What does it mean to have your best season in your platform season? Juan Soto is about to find out.
Like his teammate Aaron Judge, Soto has been at his absolute best heading into his free agency. But Soto stands to set new records in free agency for two reasons: His production is elite, and he’s younger than most any other prominent free agent.
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Soto is on pace for more than nine wins above replacement this season. Only three times this century has a position player reached free agency off a nine-win season: Alex Rodriguez twice and Aaron Judge.
Zooming out keeps Soto in rarefied air. He’s on pace to hit free agency after a five-year run of better than 32 wins above replacement. That would be behind only Rodriguez (twice) and Albert Pujols.
And Soto will hit free agency entering his age-26 season. Among prominent players, only Rodriguez reached free agency younger, back in 2001 at 25. Manny Machado, Bryce Harper and Jason Heyward are the only others to be free agents this century entering their age-26 season.
So what does this mean for his contract this winter?
I’ve done this exercise with Soto twice before.
- Spring 2023: 14 years, $528 million
- Winter 2023-24: 14 years, $540 million
A few things have changed since the last time I did this last winter. At that point, Soto was coming off a pair of lesser seasons — very good production, of course, but not elite. His platform season is already his best in the majors, and that lifts the ceiling on what he can earn.
Second, Shohei Ohtani signed for 10 years and about $438 million, when factoring in deferrals. That set a new record for both total compensation and average annual value. The contract did not, however, obliterate the old records, the way it first seemed when it was announced as a $700 million deal. In terms of total value, it edged out Mike Trout’s $426.5 million extension with the Angels; with an AAV of $43.8 million, it’s about a half-million clear of the deals signed by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander with the Mets.
Even when factoring in inflation over the last quarter-century, most major deals have hit a ceiling at around $43 million per year. That’s what Rodriguez’s first deal with the Rangers would be worth in today’s money; Trout’s would be at $42 million annually today.
So let’s first look at how Soto compares with last year’s big free agent.
Soto v. Ohtani
Player | Signed | Ages | fWAR1 | fWAR3 | fWAR5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Juan Soto | 2025 | 26- | 9.1 | 18.8 | 32.4 |
Shohei Ohtani | 2024 | 29-38 | 8.9 | 26.4 | 30.9 |
The production is pretty similar, and Soto has a few advantages over Ohtani. He’s younger by three years, he’s not nursing an injury, and none of his value is tied to the inherently risky practice of pitching. A 10-year, $440 million deal for Soto could thus be his floor.
Back in the winter, I proposed mashing Rodriguez’s two deals together: the initial 10-year, $252 million contract he signed with the Rangers (valued at $431 million in today’s money) and the 10-year, $275 million extension (valued at $391 million in today’s money) he signed after opting out seven years later with the Yankees.
Rodriguez earned about $467 million over those 17 seasons. In today’s money, that would be valued at about $693 million. So that’s probably an unattainable ceiling here.
Soto v. Rodriguez
Player | Signed | Ages | fWAR1 | fWAR3 | fWAR5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alex Rodriguez | 2008 | 32-41 | 9.6 | 22.5 | 38.3 |
Alex Rodriguez | 2001 | 25-34 | 9.5 | 22.1 | 35.6 |
Juan Soto | 2025 | 26- | 9.1 | 18.8 | 32.4 |
It’s very likely that Soto will set a new record for total value in a contract, eclipsing Ohtani’s $437.8 million with the Dodgers. It’s pretty likely that he sets a new standard for average annual value as well, again breaking past Ohtani.
However, if he wants a megadeal that takes him to around age-40, he may have to sacrifice on the AAV. The two prior deals I’ve suggested for Soto have been for 14 years, and we’ve seen teams extend star players up to and through their age-40 season of late. Judge is signed through 39, Trea Turner, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts through 40.
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Going for 14 years, or through Soto’s age-39 season, at Ohtani’s record AAV would push a deal beyond $600 million. As good as Soto has been, it remains hard to imagine any team signing him for that long at that high a number when he doesn’t play a premium defensive position.
Soto could aim for a 14-year deal at, say, Judge’s $40 million per season; that would get him to $560 million total. Or he could go for both records with something like a 12-year deal at $45 million per season, for $540 million total.
Either of those deals would set a new record for total value by more than $100 million, just as Rodriguez did in 2001.
(Top photo of Juan Soto, who has enjoyed a career year with the Yankees: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
Tim Britton is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the New York Mets. He has covered Major League Baseball since 2009 and the Mets since 2018. Prior to joining The Athletic, he spent seven seasons on the Red Sox beat for the Providence Journal. He has also contributed to Baseball Prospectus, NBC Sports Boston, MLB.com and Yahoo Sports. Follow Tim on Twitter @TimBritton
